East Carolina

Conference:	Amer
Expected RPI:	274.0
Current RPI:	274
Expected SOS:	163
Current SOS:	163
Current Record:	10-20
Expected Record:	10-20
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	331
Expected OOC SOS:	348

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	274.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	76-50	W	100%
11-15	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	66-73	L	0%
11-17	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	68-79	L	0%
11-20	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	72-69	W	100%
11-24	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	61-47	L	0%
11-26	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	81-87	L	0%
11-30	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	93-88	W	100%
12-2	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	63-57	W	100%
12-4	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	69-66	W	100%
12-18	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	50-69	L	0%
12-21	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	76-68	W	100%
12-28	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	79-53	L	0%
12-31	UCF (84.0)	Amer	H	39-59	L	0%
1-3	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	65-67	W	100%
1-6	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	70-65	L	0%
1-11	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	H	60-95	L	0%
1-14	Houston (18.0)	Amer	H	49-65	L	0%
1-17	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	90-52	W	100%
1-20	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	86-60	L	0%
1-28	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	86-61	L	0%
1-31	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	H	69-71	L	0%
2-3	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	H	88-85	W	100%
2-7	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	90-73	L	0%
2-14	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	80-82	W	100%
2-18	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	H	80-84	L	0%
2-21	SMU (113.0)	Amer	H	58-77	L	0%
2-25	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	109-58	L	0%
3-1	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	H	58-72	L	0%
3-4	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	90-70	L	0%
3-8	UCF (84.0)	Amer	N	66-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
East Carolina	Amer	26.20	26.20	26.39	26.39	-12.37	-12.37
Memphis	Amer	4.19	4.19	62.50	62.50	1.05	1.05
South Florida	Amer	4.16	4.16	33.33	33.33	-1.39	-1.39
Houston	Amer	4.11	4.11	77.42	77.42	2.25	2.25
SMU	Amer	4.11	4.11	48.39	48.39	-0.13	-0.13
UCF	Amer	4.10	4.10	56.67	56.67	0.55	0.55
Connecticut	Amer	4.08	4.08	40.00	40.00	-0.82	-0.82
Tulsa	Amer	4.08	4.08	58.62	58.62	0.70	0.70
Tulane	Amer	4.08	4.08	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Cincinnati	Amer	2.64	2.64	87.88	87.88	2.00	2.00
Temple	Amer	2.52	2.52	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Wichita St.	Amer	2.52	2.52	77.42	77.42	1.38	1.38
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.87	1.87	16.13	16.13	-1.27	-1.27
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.83	1.83	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.77	1.77	6.90	6.90	-1.53	-1.53
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.77	1.77	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.77	1.77	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
Radford	BSth	1.75	1.75	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Campbell	BSth	1.75	1.75	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Rutgers	B10	1.74	1.74	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Charlotte	CUSA	1.72	1.72	14.81	14.81	-1.21	-1.21
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.70	1.70	31.03	31.03	-0.64	-0.64
Grambling St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Liberty	BSth	0.22	0.22	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.19	0.19	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
New Orleans	Slnd	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Winthrop	BSth	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Elon	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
LSU	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	87.88	87.88	0.10	0.10
Bryant	NEC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02